Intelligent data analysis approaches to churn as a business problem: a survey

Globalization processes and market deregulation policies are rapidly changing the competitive environments of many economic sectors. The appearance of new competitors and technologies leads to an increase in competition and, with it, a growing preoccupation among service-providing companies with creating stronger customer bonds. In this context, anticipating the customer’s intention to abandon the provider, a phenomenon known as churn, becomes a competitive advantage. Such anticipation can be the result of the correct application of information-based knowledge extraction in the form of business analytics. In particular, the use of intelligent data analysis, or data mining, for the analysis of market surveyed information can be of great assistance to churn management. In this paper, we provide a detailed survey of recent applications of business analytics to churn, with a focus on computational intelligence methods. This is preceded by an in-depth discussion of churn within the context of customer continuity management. The survey is structured according to the stages identified as basic for the building of the predictive models of churn, as well as according to the different types of predictive methods employed and the business areas of their application.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Effect of intra-ply voids on the homogenized behavior of a ply in multidirectional laminates

This work focuses on the effect of intra-ply voids on the homogenized nonlinear behavior of a ply in multidirectional composites. Voids were modeled explicitly on the fiber scale and linked to the ply-scale by the recently developed two-scale framework which couples Classical Laminate Theory on the macro-scale with Finite Element analysis on the micro-scale. Laminates [+/- 45](2s) and [+/- 67.5](2s) were used as validation cases. The computed homogenized behavior of plies with and without voids for each laminate were compared against existing experimental data on manufactured plates. The nonlinearity of the homogenized stress-strain curves of all models is in a good agreement with experiments up to 1% of applied deformation for a laminate [+/- 45](2s) and up to 0.4% for a laminate [+/- 67.5](2s). The effect of voids was assessed only virtually and it is shown that 4% of void content decreases the ply strength by 30%, transversal Young's and shear moduli by around 10% and 8% respectively, whereas longitudinal stiffness is only slightly affected by the presence of voids. This work is the first step towards automatization of the virtual identification of the complete set of damage-plasticity parameters for the LMT-Cachan damage model accounting for the presence of intra-ply voids

Un Modelo Teórico sobre Crédito, Represión Financiera y Flujos de Capital

En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo teórico con fundamentos microeconómicos sobre el funcionamiento del mercado de crédito en una economía abierta. El modelo permite identificar los canales a través de los cuales el sistema financiero doméstico puede propagar y amplificar los ciclos inducidos por fluctuaciones en las tasas de interés internacionales y es consistente con la observación empírica de una correlación positiva entre el crédito en pesos al sector privado y los flujos de capitales que se puede apreciar en el caso colombiano. Con base en el modelo se muestra que la utilización activa de los coeficientes de encaje bancario con propósitos contracíclicos, tal como fue sugerida por Edwards y Vegh (1997), puede ser contraproducente.

Avoided Crossing and sub-Fourier-sensitivity in Driven Quantum Systems

The response of a linear system to an external perturbation is governed by the Fourier limit, with the inverse of the interaction time constituting a lower limit for the system bandwidth. This does not hold for nonlinear systems, which can thus exhibit sub-Fourier-behavior. The present Letter identifies a mechanism for sub-Fourier-sensitivity in driven quantum systems, which relies on avoided crossing between Floquet states. Features up to three orders of magnitude finer than the Fourier limit are presented.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain, Grant No. FIS2016-80244-

Functional studies of p.R132C, p.R149C, p.M283V, p.E431K, and a novel c.652-2A>G mutations of the CYP21A2 gene

Congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency is the most frequent inborn error of metabolism and accounts for 90–95% of CAH cases. In the present work, we analyzed the functional consequence of four novel previously reported point CYP21A2 mutations -p.R132C, p.R149C, p.M283V, p.E431K- found in Argentinean 21-hydroxylase deficient patients. In addition, we report an acceptor splice site novel point mutation, c.652-2A.G, found in a classical patient in compound heterozygosity with the rare p.R483Q mutation. We performed bioinformatic and functional assays to evaluate the biological implication of the novel mutation. Our analyses revealed that the residual enzymatic activity of the isolated mutants coding for CYP21A2 aminoacidic substitutions was reduced to a lesser than 50% of the wild type with both progesterone and 17-OH progesterone as substrates. Accordingly, all the variants would predict mild non-classical alleles. In one non-classical patient, the p.E431K mutation was found in cis with the p.D322G one. The highest decrease in enzyme activity was obtained when both mutations were assayed in the same construction, with a residual activity most likely related to the simple virilizing form of the disease. For the c.652-2A.G mutation, bioinformatic tools predicted the putative use of two different cryptic splicing sites. Nevertheless, functional analyses revealed the use of only one cryptic splice acceptor site located within exon 6, leading to the appearance of an mRNA with a 16 nt deletion. A severe allele is strongly suggested due to the presence of a premature stop codon in the protein only 12 nt downstream.Fil: Taboas, Melisa Ivana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Fundación de Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Gómez Acuña, Luciana Inés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Fisiología, Biología Molecular y Neurociencias. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Fisiología, Biología Molecular y Neurociencias; ArgentinaFil: Scaia, María Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental; ArgentinaFil: Bruque, Carlos David. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Fundación de Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Buzzalino, Noemí Delia. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán". Centro Nacional de Genética Médica; ArgentinaFil: Stivel, M.. Gobierno de la Ciudad Autonoma de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos Carlos Durand.; ArgentinaFil: Ceballos, Nora Raquel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Dain, Liliana Beatriz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Fundación de Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; Argentin

Statistical Speech Segmentation in Tone Languages: The Role of Lexical Tones

First Published May 9, 2017Research has demonstrated distinct roles for consonants and vowels in speech processing. For example, consonants have been shown to support lexical processes, such as the segmentation of speech based on transitional probabilities (TPs), more effectively than vowels. Theory and data so far, however, have considered only non-tone languages, that is to say, languages that lack contrastive lexical tones. In the present work, we provide a first investigation of the role of consonants and vowels in statistical speech segmentation by native speakers of Cantonese, as well as assessing how tones modulate the processing of vowels. Results show that Cantonese speakers are unable to use statistical cues carried by consonants for segmentation, but they can use cues carried by vowels. This difference becomes more evident when considering tone-bearing vowels. Additional data from speakers of Russian and Mandarin suggest that the ability of Cantonese speakers to segment streams with statistical cues carried by tone-bearing vowels extends to other tone languages, but is much reduced in speakers of non-tone languages.The research leading to these results has received funding from: the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC [grant agreement 269502, PASCAL]; the Chilean CONICYT program PIA/BASAL [grant FB0003]; the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation; and the Basque Foundation for Science (Ikerbasque)

Numerical and Experimental Evaluation of a CFRP Fatigue Strengthening for Stringer-Floor Beam Connections in a 19th Century Riveted Railway Bridge

ABSTRACT: A local and global finite element analysis of the stringer-floor beam connection of a 19th century riveted railway bridge in Spain made of puddle iron were performed to obtain the maximum principal strains in the riveted connecting angles corresponding to bending moments from train loading on the bridge. Due to the anisotropic nature of puddle iron, the connecting angles were modelled using Hill anisotropic plasticity potential and a parametric study in the local FE model of the connection was performed. A laboratory specimen fabricated with original stringers dismantled from the railway bridge was tested to calibrate the numerical models, so the yield stress ratio that best fitted experimental results was obtained. Based on the method of constant fatigue-life diagram and modified Goodman fatigue failure criterion, it was detected that the connecting angles were prone to fatigue crack initiation, as the combination of mean stress and alternating stress amplitude at the toe of the angle fillet remained outside the infinite fatigue-life region. An innovative strengthening system based on adhesively-bonded carbon-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) angles was designed to prevent fatigue crack initiation in the connecting angles of the stringer-floor beam connection. Different CFRP laminate layouts were numerically evaluated and a proper configuration was obtained that reduced both the mean stress and the alternating stress amplitude in the connecting angle to shift from finite fatigue-life region to infinite fatigue-life region in the constant fatigue-life diagram. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed CFRP strengthening method, its application on a second laboratory specimen fabricated with original stringers was evaluated experimentally and compared with numerical results. The research study conducted showed that the use of adhesively-bonded CFRP angles was an effective strengthening system in reducing the stress level in the fillet region of the puddle iron connecting angles (where fatigue cracks are prone to initiate) and consequently could increase fatigue life of the stringer-floor beam connection